Less than 19 cents of the bailout are going to allow Greece to continue its overspending. About 23 cents goes to Greek institutions, though at this point, all of that is held by the ECB, so it is not fully benefiting Greece.
18 cents are going to the ECB directly and 40 cents are going to banks and insurance companies outside of Greece. So at least 58 cents of every bailout Euro is going outside of Greece, and depending on how you treat the repo agreements, that number could easily be 70 cents.
So yes, Greece is getting a bailout, but you can see why Merkozy got so scared at the idea of a referendum. The bulk of the money that Greece is “getting” comes right back to the rest of the EU. Whatever posturing is going on, Greece will get away without meeting any of its stated goals, or at least it will until the EU decides it has written down enough principal and that the ECB can handle the shock.
This is our first attempt at breaking down where the bailout money really goes. We have made a lot of assumptions and found data that seems sketchy at best, but will work on fixing any mistakes. We do think it is an interesting way to look at it, and confirms who really has the problem with a Greek default – and it’s not Greece.