Finally Greece has a government! But for how long?


After one month, Greece has now a government. All the world is happy, euro is going up, sentiment has a little bit improved, bond yields in Spain and Italy are getting lower, so what more can someone ask. 

But what are the real expectations of such a government? For first time in Greek post war history, a government is based on the coalition of three different and distinctive parties. We have:

New democracy, representing the right political part.

Pasok, representing the center and, 

Democratic Left, representing, apparently, the central left, or left side. 

For some it looks like the perfect golden, dream team, (everybody is welcomed to participate) but for others, a desperate effort of the current political status quo to preserve, exactly, this status quo. 

I am really afraid, that although in the short run, this coalition may perform, in the long run there is no way. The three parties have significant ideological differences and it is not certain how they will collaborate in the many, and crucial, open matters for Greece.

Staying in European union and use the euro, is one thing that the majority of Greeks agree, but in matters where touch labor issues, restructuring of the Greek state, foreign policy issues, the differences are so big and distant. 

What I see eventually, is that Europe will take some small steps to relief Greece from the tough austerity measures, there would be no progress on the big foreign policy issues of Greece (with the back up of Europe), Europe will gain more time to see how it will solve the big debt crisis and Greece will remain with the golden team in government to rule the country for the next short period. 

To my estimation, next elections can be seen in the next 12-16 months from today. 


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